FIRST LOOK(s):

World Resources Institute hosts a COP27 curtain raiser press call TODAY at 8:30 am ET/2:30 pm CEST. Tune in to preview expectations for a successful outcome, and hear how leaders can make meaningful progress at COP27.

EVs are not just for people who live in single-family homes. Renters and those in multi-unit dwellings can own EVs, too! Join Generation180 TOMORROW at 12pm ET and start the EV charging convo with your property manager or HOA.

Hundred-Year Flood Would Devastate L.A. Communities: A major flood in the Los Angeles Basin would cause much more severe damage than current official estimates forecast and disproportionately harm low-lying Black and low-income communities, a study published Monday in Nature Sustainability finds. A so-called 100-year flood — an event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year — would quickly overwhelm the region's waterways and 70-year-old drainage network, but the region's long history of racist housing policies are mainly to blame for a potential flood's disparate harms. Black, Latino, and Asian residents were 79%, 17%, and 11% more likely than white residents to be exposed to waist-high flooding, respectively. Climate change, caused by the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels -– along with urban sprawl — is increasing flooding risks, making droughts worse and more frequent, and amplifying extreme weather whiplash. The study is one of the first that takes a more in-depth assessment of the city’s infrastructure capabilities, and examines the ways climate change-fueled extreme weather whiplash would impact the region. In the worst-case scenario, whole communities currently outside federal flood zones, — meaning homes there are unlikely to be insured against flood damage — could be six feet underwater. (LA Times $, New York Times; Climate Signals background: Flooding, Western megadrought)

Lisa Expected To Hit Central America At Hurricane Strength: Tropical Storm Lisa officially formed Monday and is expected to intensify to Category 1 strength before hitting Central America tomorrow. The storm is currently projected to make landfall in Belize, but will likely dump heavy rainfall on Southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. The 12th named storm of the 2022 Atlatntic hurricane season would be the second storm to hit the Yucatán Peninsula this year, though the first originated in the Pacific. The storm could potentially cause significant rainfall in the economically and agriculturally vital Sula Valley in northwestern Honduras, which was devastated by Eta nearly exactly two years ago. October 31 usually marks the beginning of the end of hurricane season, but exceptionally warm waters in the Caribbean are fueling the storm. (Washington Post $, Yale Climate Connections, New York Times $, AP; Climate signals background: Hurricanes, Sea surface temperature increase)

Biden Floats Tax Hikes On Super-Duper-Profitable Oil Companies: President Biden on Monday said oil companies raking in record profits could face higher taxes unless they increase extraction to lower the price of gasoline at the pump. Rather than increase production to alleviate high costs on American consumers, companies are instead often spending billions on dividends and stock buybacks to reward their shareholders. "It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities to this country, give the American people a break and still do very well,” Biden said. He did not explicitly call for a "windfall tax" on profits he described as a "windfall of war." Biden's comments follow recent gangbusters earning reports from multiple firms including Exxon and Chevron Corp, the two biggest U.S. oil and gas companies that reported over $30 billion in combined earnings last Friday — enough that the two firms combined pulled down more than $400,000 in the time it takes to fill an SUV gas tank, according to CNN. ExxonMobil reported $19.7 billion in Q3 profits, besting its previous $17.9 billion record profits from the previous quarter. Chevron netted $11.2 billion in Q3, nearly doubling its 2021 Q3 profits. Shell posted $9.45 billion in Q3 profits and announced plans to buy back $4 billion of stock in Q4 and increase its dividend. BP pulled down an "exceptional" $6.24 billion in Q3 profits, its second-highest quarterly profit ever and said it would buy back $3.5 billion of shares. The U.S. is also currently facing a significant shortage of diesel fuel, with wide-ranging implications across the economy. (Biden: Washington Post $, E&E News, New York Times $, Axios, E&E News, The Hill, The Hill, Politico, NBC; Exxon: The Guardian, Reuters, CNN, CNBC; Shell: New York Times $, CNBC, Barron's, AP, Reuters, CNN; Chevron: Reuters; BP: Bloomberg $, Wall Street Journal $, Bloomberg $; Diesel shortage: The Hill, CNBC, NPR, OilPrice, Forbes)

(ENVIRONMENTAL) RACISM: 'N-word' usage surges after Elon Musk took over twitter (Black Wall Street Times), Jewish leaders call on GOP candidates to reject antisemitic comments (Washington Post $)

• …AND CISHETERONORMATIVITY: In Florida, queer youth battle bigotry and climate change (Atmos)

ATTACK ON LINE OF SUCCESSION: Feds charge alleged Pelosi attacker with attempted kidnapping (Washington Post $, AP)

COP27: Rich nations underdeliver again on $100B climate pledge (E&E $), Nothing will change on climate until death toll rises in West, says Gabonese minister (The Guardian), COP27: Conversations to watch at the climate summit (Reuters explainer), Why these climate talks are different than other COPs (E&E News), 5 people to watch at the COP27 climate talks in egypt (Washington Post $), COP27 climate summit to test resolve of world battling war, inflation (Reuters), COP27 protesters will be corralled in desert away from climate conference (The Guardian), Greta Thunberg to skip ‘greenwashing’ COP27 climate summit in Egypt (The Guardian, Washington Post $), How debt-for-climate swaps can help solve low-income countries’ fiscal and environmental challenges at the same time (The Conversation), How is King Charles pushing for climate action at COP27? (Context), India to press rich countries to keep climate fund pledge (Reuters), Two-thirds of US money for fossil fuel pours into Africa despite climate goals (The Guardian), What is COP27? And other questions about the big UN climate summit (New York Times $, CBS), Major climate finance group relaxes its membership rules (E&E $), Rishi Sunak may yet attend COP27 climate summit, says No 10 (The Guardian)

FOSSIL FUELED ENERGY CRISIS: Europe’s winter could be colder than normal, threatening higher gas demand (Wall Street Journal $), 2-minute showers and a flotilla of gas shipments: Europe braces for winter (New York Times $)

• NEW ENGLAND: Eversource CEO seeks emergency order by Biden to ensure gas supplies as New England winter approaches (Utility Dive, S&P Global, E&E $, Bloomberg $, RTO Insider, NBC Boston, WCVB, Western Mass News)

CLIMATE LITIGATION: Celebrating victories in Europe and South America, the rights of nature movement plots strategy in a time of ‘crises’ (Inside Climate News), In Baytown case, Exxon seeks limit on citizens' right to sue over pollution (Houston Chronicle)

BRAZILIAN ELECTION: Bolsonaro's era of destruction in Brazil has finally come to an end (Gizmodo), Brazil election: Lula victory raises hope for Amazon rainforest (Climate Home), Brazil's Bolsonaro maintains silence after Lula's election victory (Reuters), Lula cheered for new climate policies after Brazil election (Reuters), Lula expected to turn to trusted aides for Cabinet posts (Reuters), Lula's election promises rankle in Bolsonaro Amazon stronghold (Context), Lula’s victory in Brazil sparks optimism on deforestation, with ramifications for the world (CNBC), Why Brazil's election is a major victory in the fight against climate change (NBC)

ARCHEOLOGY: Climate change adds urgency to archaeology (E&E News), The world’s melting glaciers are yielding up their secrets too quickly (Washington Post $)

CLIMATE MIGRATION: Alaska village resists despite threats (AP, AP Photos)

SCOTUS: SCOTUS race-in-admissions case could dim Biden EJ ambitions (E&E News)

EPA: The EPA is creating a 'green bank' — here’s what that means (Truthout)

DOI: Biden identifies 700,000 acres in Gulf for offshore wind development (Houston Chronicle), Could threats to cut Colorado River scare states into action? (E&E $)

NOT HOCUS POCUS: DOT picks Salem, Mass., for offshore wind hub grant (E&E $)

THE HILL: House GOP plans early 2023 energy bill, search for ‘the next Solyndra’ (Politico Pro $), Senate EPW Democrats hire Obama-era Interior official (E&E $)

ELECTIONS: 3 governor’s races set to remake clean energy (E&E News), A scrappy environmental attorney is looking to keep Ryan Zinke from returning to DC (HuffPost), Democrats passed a major climate bill. Why aren’t more political ads touting it? (Grist), Enviros threaten to sue over Zinke’s phone records (E&E $)

CITIES AND STATES: In California’s wine country, some towns ban new gasoline stations (Wall Street Journal $)

FERC: Over AEP, Xcel objections, FERC OKs SPP transmission cost allocation process affecting wind-heavy areas (Utility Dive)

IMPACTS: Why are West and Central Africa's floods so devastating this year? (Reuters explainer), Europe is seeing its warmest weather on record so late in the year (Washington Post $), Shrinking Himalayan glaciers spell trouble downstream (Yale Climate Connections)

HEAT: Heat waves have cost the world trillions (E&E $)

WILDFIRES: Preventing wildfire with the wild horse fire brigade (NPR)

DROUGHT: Egypt's farmers fear rising social tensions over scarce water (Context)

AIR POLLUTION: Tiny particles of air pollution appear more deadly if from human-made sources (Environmental Health News), Traffic jams are tied to lower birth weights, study finds (The Verge)

OCEANS: Using the ocean to fight climate change raises serious environmental justice and technical questions (The Conversation)

WHY? IS IT RELEVANT TO THEIR FUTURES OR SOMETHING?: What do American’s middle schools teach about climate change? Not much. (New York Times $)

RENEWABLES: Renewable energy contributes record 68.7% of power to Australia’s main grid for brief period (The Guardian), This UFO-like structure could help Europe transform its energy (Washington Post $)

"REWNEWABLES": NextEra invests $1.1B in waste-to-gas facilities (E&E $)

BATTERIES: The future of solid-state batteries could be 3D-printed (The Verge), In remote Nevada valley, race for more lithium comes down to water (Nevada Independent)

BUILDINGS: Heating will be costly this winter, but much less so with a heat pump (Canary Media), Volunteer-made window inserts are keeping New England homes snug (Energy News Network)

LNG: ‘Hubris’: LNG plant officials saw trouble days before blast (E&E News)

OIL & GAS: OPEC sees booming oil demand until middle of century (Wall Street Journal $, The Hill, Reuters), OPEC+ 'only a phone call away' if markets need balancing - UAE minister (Reuters), Supply-side woes to dominate oil markets (Houston Chronicle), West Texas fracking causes such demand for sand that mining industry has gone mobile to produce it (Houston Chronicle)

UTILITIES: Dominion settles with Walmart, others on potential cost overruns for $9.8B offshore wind project (Utility Dive), Dominion strikes deal with Va. AG over offshore wind costs (E&E $), NextEra says FPL’s speedy Hurricane Ian recovery could cost customers $1.1B (Utility Dive)

EVs: California moves toward mandating zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (Utility Dive), UAW files for federal permission to set election at ohio battery plant (Wall Street Journal $), Ford offers grants for infrastructure around TN factory (AP)

• E-POTATOPOTATOPOTATO: Harley-Davidson’s electric motorcycles struggle to connect with investors (Wall Street Journal $)

CRYPTO: From coal to crypto: Mining in Appalachia (Context)

PHILANTHROPY: Charitable giving to fight climate change now tops at least $7.5 billion, a 25% rise (Chronicle of Philanthropy)

FINANCE: [European Bank for Reconstruction and Development] will not divest existing upstream oil and gas loans -executive (Reuters)

IN MEMORIAM: Randolph E. Schmid, AP science writer with light touch, dies (AP)

WILDLIFE: Emperor penguins get Endangered Species Act protection – with 98% of colonies at risk of extinction by 2100, can it save them? (The Conversation), Florida heat births more female turtles than males. It may lead to population decline (NPR), Scientists go to bat for Halloween’s iconic, at-risk species (E&E News)

INTERNATIONAL: Denmark’s largest opposition party wants to sell part of Ørsted to finance climate plan (Energy Monitor), What to know about Denmark’s election (New York Times $)

• Europe’s pain will be ultimately worth it (Reuters, Hugo Dixon column)
• On Guam there is no birdsong, you cannot imagine the trauma of a silent island (The Guardian, Julian Aguon op-ed)
• To electrify the United States, we’re going to need a lot more electricity (New York Times, Peter Coy op-ed $)
• Sri Lanka's energy crisis is a glimpse of what is coming (Context, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya op-ed)
• Why Bolsonaro’s stunning loss should give humans a glimmer of hope (Washington Post, Greg Sargent and Paul Waldman op-ed $)

Citing Climate Consensus Still Best Bet Against Doubt And Dismissal, Study Finds

One of the first targets the industrial climate disinformation machine started attacking was the scientific consensus that fossil fuels cause dangerous climate change. Ad men knew, even back in the 1950s, that the public's understanding of a scientific issue hinged on what we perceived the experts to believe about it. Even just a lone voice saying something wrong, but loud was enough to give people something to hang their hat on. 

It's no great surprise, then, that modern studies reveal the extent to which public sentiment on climate is shaped by how people understand the scientific consensus. A person's understanding of the overwhelming nature of the consensus on climate is a "gateway belief" — something that, once you know about it, makes you much more open to climate policy. 

Now the latest study on the issue confirms that even deniers are influenced by consensus! In "Communicating the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: Diverse Audiences and Effects Over Time," lead author Matthew Goldberg and coauthors (including Sander van der Linden and Anthony Leiserowtiz) measure how persuasive consensus messaging is to "oppositional audiences," how long that effect lasts, and the predictive factors on whether or not the effect will last. 

They found that, "Although consensus treatment effects decay over time, 40% of the original treatment effect remains 26 days later." This means that there's likely some relatively long-term impact to telling people climate scientists are nearly unanimous on the cause of the crisis. 

"Additionally," the abstract states, "the treatment effect is most durable among people Doubtful or Dismissive of climate change." 

So, it's actually most effective on those who most need to hear it! Wonderful! 

In a (free, un-paywalled) preprint draft, you can find that, when asked to estimate what percentage of scientists have "concluded that human-caused global warming is happening," the Alarmed audience moved the least because they had the highest estimate to begin with. Alarmed people estimated an 87% consensus before being told the reality, and then updated that to 92% after the treatment. The Concerned went from 77 to 88%, and the Cautious from 69% to 80% — spreads of just 5-10%. 

But the Doubtful and Dismissive started with even lower estimates of consensus — 61% and 53%, respectively. After being exposed to the treatment message that “97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused global warming is happening," those numbers jumped. 

While Dismissives apparently begrudgingly admitted to a 68% consensus after being told about it, increasing their estimate by 15%, the Doubtful's estimate went up even further — gaining 19 points, from a 61% estimate to 80%. 

That put the Doubtfuls' estimate three points higher than the Concerned were before treatment. While it's not impossible to stick to thinking something you tell yourself has the support of "only" two-thirds of the scientific community, it's certainly harder than if you know it's half. 

Interestingly, the Dismissives before treatment thought their position was in the scientific minority against the 53% consensus. 

…They already know they've lost!

Which is why the fossil fuel industry desperately needs to keep telling them otherwise. When the researchers went back 26 days later, they found that those who had been exposed to climate disinformation had reverted back to their pre-treatment levels, while those who had heard additional reminders of the consensus remained more accurate in their stated beliefs. 

"Thus," the paper concludes, "in competitive information environments, it is important for scientific communication campaigns to be prepared to play both offense and defense."

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