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The Earth just observed its warmest February, setting a monthly record for the ninth time in a row, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service announced Wednesday.

The unrelenting and exceptional global warmth — fueled by a combination of human-caused warming and the El Niño climate pattern — has spanned both land and ocean areas since June. It has scientists worried about the planet crossing a critical climate threshold and prospects for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

The month’s average global air temperature of 13.5 degrees Celsius (56.3 degrees Fahrenheit) was 0.12 degrees (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the previous warmest February in 2016. The warmth of the last 12-month period is unprecedented in modern records, coming in at 1.56 degrees (2.8 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than preindustrial levels.

“As remarkable as this might appear, it is not really surprising as the continuous warming of the climate system inevitably leads to new temperature extremes,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a news release.

C3S/ECMWF

The new temperature records come just a month after the planet’s 12-month average temperature <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/08/1-5-celsius-global-warming-record/" target="_blank">surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius</a> above preindustrial levels for the first time. Scientists fear that tipping points, such as those that could lead to catastrophic sea level rises or the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/09/atlantic-ocean-amoc-climate-change/" target="_blank">collapse of critical ocean circulations</a>, will become more likely to be reached if the Earth’s temperature remains near or above that threshold for multiple years.

This past winter, defined as December through February, was also the Earth’s warmest on record at 0.78 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, according to Copernicus. The record-breaking warmth has continued into early March with <a href="https://twitter.com/extremetemps" target=_blank>numerous temperature records set around the world</a>.

“We are witnessing something extraordinary and unprecedented,” Maximiliano Herrera, a weather historian, <a href="https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1765049257302577306" target=_blank>wrote in a post on X Tuesday</a>. “Several thousands of records pulverized all over the world in a matter of hours, with margins never seen before.”

A <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/2024-us-winter-attribution" target=_blank>report</a> released Wednesday by the research nonprofit Climate Central found that 4.8 billion people, more than half of the world’s population, experienced at least one day of warm temperatures this winter “that would be virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change.

For 1.7 billion people, the warmth experienced on at least 31 days during the winter was made five times more likely by the influence of human-caused climate change, according to the report.

The winter was also the <a href="https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1763581143012835794" target="_blank">warmest on record for the United States</a>. More than 200 locations in the Midwest and Northeast set <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/03/02/spring-arriving-early-united-states/" target="_blank">records for winter warmth</a>. Wisconsin — where <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/28/midwest-lost-winter-no-snow/" target="_blank">residents lamented a “lost winter”</a> — set a February record high of 77 degrees.

About 85 percent of the U.S. population, or 283 million people, experienced at least one winter day with warm temperatures made at least two times more probable by climate change, Climate Central said.

In another clear sign of the planet’s warming climate, a recent analysis revealed the amount of cold air about a mile above the Northern Hemisphere was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/27/cold-air-supply-record-low-climate/" target=_blank>near a record low</a> this winter.

Climate Central

The world’s oceans remained in record-warm territory as well. February’s average global sea surface temperature was the highest on record for any month, topping out at an all-time high of 21.09 degrees Celsius (69.96 degrees Fahrenheit) at the end of the month, according to Copernicus.

In the North Atlantic, sea surface temperatures have been <a href="https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393" target=_blank>riding a record high for a full year now</a>. Unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Atlantic — already as warm as they typically are in July — have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/15/atlantic-ocean-heat-hurricane-season/" target=_blank>forecasters concerned about an active hurricane season</a>, as warm ocean waters can increase the number and intensity of storms.

As the oceans warm, Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest annual minimum extent in February at 28 percent below average, Copernicus reported. The all-time minimum, reached in February 2023, was 33 percent below average.

The extreme global warmth during the past year has coincided with a strong El Niño, which <a href="https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino" target=_blank>officially emerged last June</a>. El Niño, the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern Pacific, tends to lead to warmer weather around the world.

Scientists believe that El Niño, human-caused warming and a reduction in air pollution have all contributed to the recent warmth. The streak of record-warm months could come to an end as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/02/08/la-nina-watch-el-nino-demise/" target=_blank>El Niño weakens</a> in coming months and is potentially replaced by La Nina, the cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that can have a cooling influence globally.

Dan Stillman is a meteorologist and editor for the Capital Weather Gang. He earned an M.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University, and a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences from the University of Michigan.

Dan Stillman

Earth experienced its warmest February on record

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