El Niño is getting stronger. That could cost the global economy trillions.

With an El Niño expected to develop in coming months, new research shows the naturally occurring climate pattern could cost the global economy trillions of dollars as its effects linger over years — a figure much higher than previous estimates that only considered immediate economic tolls.

The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, found some of the most intense past El Niño events cost the global economy more than $4 trillion over the following years. As climate change could increase the frequency and strength of future El Niño events, the study authors project that global economic losses could amount to $84 trillion dollars by the end of the 21st century, even if current pledges to reduce carbon emissions are met. And the impact, the report found, will most burden lower income nations.