The latest hurricane season predictions are out, and U.S. forecasters say several key signs are pointing to another active storm season in the Atlantic this summer.
Although they don’t think the 2022 hurricane season will be as busy as the record-breaking 2020 season — when 30 named storms formed — forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are expecting the overall number of storms to be higher than average.
If the prediction materializes, 2022 would become the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic.
In its first seasonal outlook for 2022 issued Tuesday morning, the federal agency known as NOAA predicted a 65% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
In terms of the number of storms, NOAA forecasters are calling for anywhere from 14 to as many as 21 named storms to develop in the Atlantic hurricane basin during the upcoming hurricane season — which starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Of the named storms that develop this year, six to 10 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes and three to six will likely become major hurricanes, with top sustained winds of 111 mph or stronger, forecasters said during an 11 a.m. press briefing in New York City.
Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, better known as NOAA, are predicting another active hurricane season in the Atlantic in 2022.NOAA
Based on data from the past 30 years, an average hurricane season has 14 named storms in the Atlantic, seven of which strengthen into hurricanes, and three of those becoming major ones. The Atlantic hurricane basin is comprised of the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
The main factors contributing to an active hurricane season, NOAA said, are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, the ongoing La Niña climate pattern, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
“An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African easterly waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons,” the agency noted.
A strong La Niña pattern — which develops when tropical Pacific waters are cooler than normal — tends to favor storm patterns with less wind shear, making it easier for tropical systems to develop and strengthen in the Atlantic basin.
Wind shear occurs when winds suddenly change their speed or direction at different heights in the atmosphere. Experts say when there's a lot of wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane basin, it usually limits the formation and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes. When there's less wind shear, more storms develop.AccuWeather
More hurricane season predictions
Earlier this spring, other weather forecasters weighed in with their predictions, and they too are calling for another active hurricane season in the Atlantic.
— AccuWeather has predicted 16 to 20 named storms, including six to eight that will intensify into hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, AccuWeather expects three to five to become major ones that are capable of causing widespread damage.
— Colorado State University weather researchers have predicted 19 named storms, saying nine are likely to intensify into hurricanes and four of those are likely to become major hurricanes. “We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU said in its early seasonal outlook.
— The Weather Channel, a division of IBM’s The Weather Company, is predicting 20 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes this season.
— The Met Office, the government forecasting agency in the United Kingdom, is predicting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes in the Atlantic this year.
These are the 21 names that will be given to tropical storms and hurricanes that form during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. If all 21 names are exhausted, a supplemental list of names will be used.Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.