Light snow falls as Sean de Guzman, right, Manager of the California Department of Water Resources Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit, left, Jordan Thoennes, Water Resources Engineer in Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit, and center, Jacob Kollen, Water Resources Engineer in Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit, conduct the measurement phase of the fourth media snow survey of the 2023 season at Phillips Station in the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday, April 3, 2023. (Kenneth James / California Department of Water Resources)
How epic is the Sierra snowpack of 2023? In some places, the tubes that state water officials routinely use to measure the snow’s depth weren’t long enough.
California water officials gathered near Echo Summit south of Lake Tahoe on Monday for one of the most highly anticipated snowpack readings in decades, confirming what an army of snow-sensors scattered across the Sierra already showed: The statewide snowpack is tied with 1952 as the biggest haul since official statewide records began in 1950.
As of Monday morning, the statewide snowpack reached an astonishing 237% of normal compared to historical data for this date. The record-tying snowpack is a stunning turnaround from a year ago, when the official April snowpack measure was just 35% of normal. And it is an alternate universe away from 2015, when then-Gov. Jerry Brown stood on a barren mountaintop to announce the first-ever statewide water restrictions.
Eight years later, the snowpack is so deep that officials knew they might have a little issue with their traditional measuring tools.
In this April 1, 2015 file photo, Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the Department of Water Resources, and Gov. Jerry Brown walk across a dry meadow that is usually covered in several inches of snow to conduct a snow survey, near Echo Summit, Calif. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
“We had to send out guidance to all of our different partners to say that if you need to go down deeper than 240 inches — 20 feet — add on extra tubes. We haven’t had to do this in the past,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of the California Department of Water Resources’ monthly snow surveys. “We have some folks who were around in 1969 (and) 1983, and say this just… it’s way deeper than what it was then.”
Technically, Monday’s official monthly snowpack reading came two days after April 1 — the typical date against which snowpack readings are compared. On April 1, the statewide snowpack measure was at 233% of normal, according to 90 sensors scattered throughout the Sierra range, which was a few percentage points shy of the 1952 record. But since April 1 this year was a Saturday, officials held their manual measurement the next weekday.
Then, over the weekend, something happened that every sentient being in the Sierra has become numb to in the last several months — it snowed even more. A small storm deposited between 4 and 10 inches of fresh snow on the Sierra, according to National Weather Service estimates.
Suddenly, the snowpack record watchers had hope. But despite Monday’s 237% reading, there’s still some suspense for the record books, the state’s water managers cautioned Monday: A number of snow stations have yet to report their official April 1 readings, which takes into account a 10-day window, so this year could still surpass the 1952 record or fall slightly behind.
Here’s the thing about all these snowpack readings: California has way more stations collecting snowpack data now than it did in 1952. And the data they collect with modern technology is far more accurate.
Also, what’s considered ”normal” for an April 1 snowpack reading has changed over time. “Normal” April 1 snowpack in 1952 was calculated after-the-fact based on data from 1946 to 1995. But “normal” nowadays is calculated based on data from 1991 to 2020, a period plagued by many years of drought.
The California Department of Water Resources, which compiles all the snowpack data, has used five different definitions of ”normal” since 1950, making it difficult to easily compare years.
Why, you may ask, do they keep changing the definition of what’s considered normal come April 1? The shifting average is designed “to keep pace with climate change,” according to de Guzman.
If the snowpack figures were all published using the same historical data as reference, how would this year compare?
Sean de Guzman, snow survey manager for the Department of Water Resources, right, walks on the snow after he and his team conducted the final snow survey of the season at Phillips Station on Monday, April 3, 2023. It was the deepest snowpack ever recorded. (Hector Amezcua/The Sacramento Bee via AP)
In an aerial view, workers remove snow from the roof of a condominium complex in the Sierra Nevada mountains, amid snow piled up from new and past storms, after yet another storm system brought heavy snowfall further raising the snowpack on March 29, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
In this April 1, 2015 file photo, Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the Department of Water Resources, and Gov. Jerry Brown walk across a dry meadow that is usually covered in several inches of snow to conduct a snow survey, near Echo Summit, Calif. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
A snow removal machine is operated near a snowbank in the Sierra Nevada mountains as yet another storm system arrives Tuesday in Mammoth Lakes, California.
(Mario Tama/Getty Images)
In an aerial view, a snowboarder walks (L) as workers remove snow (R) from the roof of a condominium complex in the Sierra Nevada mountains, near snowbanks piled up from new and past storms, after yet another storm system brought heavy snowfall further raising the snowpack on March 29, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Homeowner Jeff Wright checks on his neighbor's home in the Sierra Nevada, near snow piled up from new and past storms, after yet another storm system brought heavy snowfall further raising the snowpack on March 29, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Workers remove snow from the roof of a condominium complex in the Sierra Nevada mountains, near snowbanks piled up from new and past storms, after yet another storm system brought heavy snowfall further raising the snowpack on March 29, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A worker clears snow from a driveway in the Sierra Nevada mountains, near snowbanks piled up from new and past storms, after yet another storm system brought heavy snowfall further raising the snowpack on March 29, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
In an aerial view, workers remove snow from the roof of a condominium complex in the Sierra Nevada mountains after another storm system brought heavy snowfall, further raising the snowpack on March 29, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A person walks near a snowbank as snow falls in the Sierra Nevada mountains from yet another storm system which is predicted to bring heavy snow to higher elevations on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A bicyclist rides on a road near a church as snow falls in the Sierra Nevada mountains from yet another storm system which is bringing heavy snow to higher elevations on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A person pushes a stroller as snow falls in the Sierra Nevada mountains from yet another storm system which is predicted to bring heavy snow to higher elevations on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A person walks past a walkway between a snowbank as snow falls in the Sierra Nevada mountains from yet another storm system which is bringing heavy snow to higher elevations on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A worker shovels a walkway as snow falls in the Sierra Nevada mountains from yet another storm system which is bringing heavy snow to higher elevations on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Robert Mendoza shovels out his neighbor's home, still covered in snow from previous storms, as yet another storm system arrives which is predicted to bring heavy snow to higher elevations on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A snow removal machine is operated near a snowbank in the Sierra Nevada mountains as yet another storm system arrives which is predicted to bring heavy snow to higher elevations on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A person walks near a a snowbank as snow falls in the Sierra Nevada mountains from yet another storm system which is bringing heavy snow to higher elevations while further raising the snowpack on March 28, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
People shovel snow from a roof near snowbanks piled up from current and previous storms in the Sierra Nevada mountains, in the wake of an atmospheric river event which brought heavy snowfall to the area, on March 11, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California.(Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Cristian Nunez shovels a snowbank at a motel as snow continues to fall in the Sierra Nevada mountains in the wake of an atmospheric river event on March 11, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. The eastern Sierra Nevada currently is holding 243 percent of its regular snowpack for this time of the year. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Snow blankets Mammoth Mountain. Mammoth Mountain, a popular four-season resort located in the Eastern Sierra mountains, announced earlier this week it would be open for skiing at least until the end of July.
(Peter Morning/Mammoth Mountain Ski Area via CNN)
“Realistically, this year would probably be substantially lower if we used the historical data,” said Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist at the Central Sierra Snow Lab. “The reason why (we don’t use the same range) is climate change, and the new climate normals are updated every 30 years.”
Regardless of how you measure it, though, this year’s massive bounty is great news for the drought, which has ended in most of the Golden State. Around a third of California’s water supply comes from melting snowpack.
But many experts are expressing growing concern that warm temperatures in the Sierra this spring could trigger cataclysmic flooding. They are particularly worried about snowmelt-fueled flooding in the Southern Sierra, where the snowpack was at a record-breaking 306% of normal on Monday.
“Once you get up above some level, you are mostly concerned with how fast it melts rather than how big is the snowpack,” said Jay Lund, professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UC Davis. “If we get a real warm spell that comes through and melts it all real fast, you’ll see much more flooding potential.”
State and federal officials will continue to actively monitor for possible floods as the snowpack begins melting this spring. The San Joaquin Valley and the Tulare Lake Basin water systems in particular have emerged as regions of concern. The state’s Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth said Monday after years of focusing on water shortages and drought, the department “has rapidly shifted to flood response.”
“This year’s severe storms and flooding,” she said, “is the latest example that California’s climate is becoming more extreme.”
In an aerial view, workers remove snow from the roof of a condominium complex in the Sierra Nevada mountains, amid snow piled up from new and past storms, after yet another storm system brought heavy snowfall further raising the snowpack on March 29, 2023 in Mammoth Lakes, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
