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Calculating Air Pollution’s Death Toll, Across State Lines

About half of the premature deaths caused by poor air quality are linked to pollutants that blow in from other states, a new study found.

A coal-fired plant in Utah. In most states, about half of premature deaths caused by poor air quality are linked to pollutants that blow in from other states, a new study found.Credit...Brandon Thibodeaux for The New York Times

Here’s further proof that air pollution ignores borders: In most states, about half of the premature deaths caused by poor air quality are linked to pollutants that blow in from other states, a new study found.

The study investigated the sources and effects of two major pollutants that harm humans, ozone and fine airborne particles, in the lower 48 states from 2005 to 2018. It found that in New York, nearly two-thirds of premature deaths are attributable to pollution from sources in other states. That makes the state the largest “net importer” of early deaths, to use the researchers’ term.

Ozone and fine particles are a result of fuel burning, so the analysis, published Wednesday in Nature, could have implications for policymakers looking for ways to reduce air pollution, and premature mortality, by regulating so-called cross-state emissions. So far only emissions from electric power generation are regulated in this way, but the study looked at six other sources of pollutants, including other industries, road transportation, aviation and commercial and residential sources like heating for homes and buildings.

This map shows premature deaths in each state caused by combustion emissions in 2018.

Air pollution deaths per 10,000 residents

Wash.

Me.

1

2

3

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Vt.

Ore.

Mass.

Idaho

S.D.

N.Y.

Wis.

Wyo.

Mich.

Conn.

Pa.

Iowa

N.J.

Neb.

Ohio

Nev.

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

W.Va.

Colo.

Pennsylvania had the highest rate of premature death from combustion- related air pollution.

Va.

Calif.

Mo.

Kan.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

S.C.

N.M.

Ark.

Ala.

Ga.

Miss.

La.

Tex.

Fla.

In 30 states, the majority of those deaths were caused by pollution blowing in from beyond the state’s own borders.

Deaths due to air pollution from out of state

Wash.

More in-state

Out-of-state

Me.

Mont.

N.D.

50%

Minn.

Vt.

Ore.

Mass.

Idaho

S.D.

N.Y.

Wis.

Wyo.

Mich.

Pa.

About 60% of air quality- related early deaths in New York were attributed to out-of-state sources.

Iowa

Neb.

Ohio

Nev.

Md.

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

W.Va.

Colo.

Va.

Calif.

Mo.

Kan.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

S.C.

N.M.

Ark.

In Delaware, more than 90% of such deaths were due to dirty air from neighboring states.

Ala.

Ga.

Miss.

La.

Nearly all of the premature air pollution deaths in California (98%) were caused by pollution originating within state borders.

Tex.

Fla.

This map shows premature deaths in each state caused by combustion emissions in 2018.

Air pollution deaths per 10,000 residents

1

2

3

Pa.

Pennsylvania The state had the highest rate of premature death from combustion-related air pollution.

In 30 states, the majority of those deaths were caused by pollution blowing in from beyond the state’s own borders.

Deaths due to air pollution from out of state

More in-state

Out-of-state

50%

N.Y.

Del.

Calif.

New York About 60% of air quality-related early deaths in the state were attributed to out-of-state sources.

Delaware More than 90% of such deaths were due to dirty air from neighboring states.

California Nearly all of the premature air pollution deaths (98%) were caused by pollution originating within state borders.

This map shows premature deaths in each state caused by combustion emissions in 2018.

Air pollution deaths per 10,000 residents

Wash.

Me.

1

2

3

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Vt.

Ore.

Mass.

Idaho

S.D.

N.Y.

Wis.

Wyo.

Mich.

Conn.

Pa.

Iowa

N.J.

Neb.

Ohio

Nev.

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

W.Va.

Colo.

Va.

Calif.

Mo.

Kan.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

S.C.

N.M.

Ark.

Pennsylvania had the highest rate of premature death from combustion- related air pollution.

Ala.

Ga.

Miss.

La.

Tex.

Fla.

In 30 states, the majority of those deaths were caused by pollution blowing in from beyond the state’s own borders.

Deaths due to air pollution from out of state

Wash.

More in-state

Out-of-state

Me.

Mont.

N.D.

50%

Minn.

Vt.

Ore.

Mass.

Idaho

S.D.

N.Y.

Wis.

Wyo.

Mich.

Pa.

Iowa

Neb.

Ohio

Nev.

Md.

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

W.Va.

Colo.

Va.

Calif.

Mo.

Kan.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

S.C.

N.M.

Ark.

About 60% of such deaths in New York were attributed to out-of-state sources.

Ala.

Ga.

Miss.

La.

Tex.

Nearly all of the premature air pollution deaths in California (98%) were caused by pollution originating within state borders.

Fla.

Source: Nature

By Nadja Popovich/The New York Times

“We know air quality is bad in many ways, and if we want to continue to improve it we need to understand what the causes are and what the effects are and to target the biggest contributors,” said Steven R.H. Barrett, director of the Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an author of the study.

Scientists have long known that air pollution from one area can have effects elsewhere. Damage to forests by acid rain in the Northeast in the 1960s was linked to coal-burning power plants in other regions, for example.

The new study, by Dr. Barrett, Irene C. Dedoussi of Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands and others, quantifies the effects of each state on every other, using pollution data and computer models to track pollution in the atmosphere. “It’s putting a head count on it,” Dr. Barrett said.

The study found that the states that emitted pollution that caused the most early deaths in other states were in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Ozone and fine particles emitted in Wyoming and North Dakota, for example, lead to few deaths per capita in those states. But the pollution is carried eastward by the prevailing winds, leading to more deaths elsewhere.

The analysis also found a decline in cross-state deaths linked to electricity generation since 2005, an indication that pollution regulations, like the Environmental Protection Agency’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, are working. The rule, established in 2011, requires about 27 states, mostly in the eastern half of the country, to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, which lead to formation of ozone and fine particles.

Premature deaths linked to pollution from road transportation have also declined with the adoption of more efficient fuel standards and emissions controls. But the declines have not been as great as with electricity generation, Dr. Barrett said, because it takes years to replace the nation’s entire fleet of vehicles with cleaner ones.

As a result of the drop in early deaths linked to power generation and road transportation, the overall effect of cross-state pollution has declined, the study said. But at the same time, residential and commercial emissions are now the leading cause of cross-state early deaths, a finding that came as a surprise to the researchers.

“They may not have seemed so important 10 or 20 years ago, but these commercial and residential emissions now look really important, in big part because progress has been made in other sectors,” Dr. Barrett said. “Future research and future policy are going to have to bear down on these emissions and start controlling them,” he said.

The study did not look at pollution from wildfires, which increasingly contribute to poor air quality in the United States. “They are currently less important for the long-term averages that affect human health the most,” Dr. Barrett said. “That might change in the future if wildfires become more common under a changing climate.”

Michael Brauer, an environmental health specialist at the University of British Columbia in Canada who was not involved in the study, said the findings show that work needs to be done to reduce pollution from smaller sources like commercial buildings and homes.

Decreases in early deaths from pollution from larger sources like power plants, he said, are “a result of the effectiveness of federal regulations.”

“The cross-state rule was really pretty effective,” he added. “We need to not relax rules like that.”

Dr. Barrett said that it was not until he and his colleagues did all their calculations that he realized how much progress had been made on electric power generation. “It really has been the thing the E.P.A. has been working hard on improving,” he said.

Efforts by the Trump administration to overturn some regulations — although the White House has supported the cross-state rule — are potentially concerning, Dr. Barrett said. “It could be pretty worrying if those changes have time to take hold,” he said.

For more climate news sign up for the Climate Fwd: newsletter or follow @NYTClimate on Twitter.

Henry Fountain specializes in the science of climate change and its impacts. He has been writing about science for The Times for more than 20 years and has traveled to the Arctic and Antarctica. More about Henry Fountain

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 15 of the New York edition with the headline: Calculating Pollution’s Toll, Across State Lines. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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